Retail

US' consumer confidence index shows positive momentum in June '23: TCB

29 Jun '23

2 min read

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Insights

US' consumer confidence index rose to 109.7 in June 2023, up from 102.5 in May.
Positive assessments of current business conditions and job availability increased, as did short-term business and job market expectations.
Short-term income prospects worsened.
Recession fears eased, with 69.3 per cent anticipating a recession, down from 73.2 per cent in May.

US’ consumer confidence index has recorded an upward trend in June, hitting a score of 109.7, a rise from May's 102.5, according to the latest survey by The Conference Board (TCB). The present situation index, which gauges consumers' perception of current business and labour market conditions, also climbed to 155.3 from last month's 148.9.

The expectations index, focusing on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labour market conditions, saw a notable rise to 79.3 from 71.5 in May 2023. This figure sits just below the 80-mark, a level associated with looming recession within the next year. With the exception of a brief increase in December 2022, the expectations have remained below 80 since February 2022. However, June's reading is close to this threshold.

Consumers' views of the current business climate were more positive in June. 23.7 per cent respondents said business conditions were ‘good’, an increase from 19.7 per cent in May. Only 16.3 per cent believed business conditions were ‘bad’, down slightly from 16.7 per cent the previous month, as per the TCB’s Consumer Confidence Survey.

The labour market also received an improved appraisal from consumers. About 46.8 per cent reported jobs were ‘plentiful’, a rise from May's 43.3 per cent, while only 12.4 per cent felt jobs were ‘hard to get’, a slight drop from 12.6 per cent last month.

Short-term business outlook in June was more optimistic. About 14.2 per cent of consumers expect conditions to improve, up from 13.2 per cent, and those expecting a decline fell to 17.7 per cent from 21.4 per cent.

The short-term labour market outlook also improved, with 15.5 per cent expecting more jobs, up from 13.8 per cent, while those predicting fewer jobs dropped to 16.0 per cent from 21.1 per cent.

However, consumer's short-term income prospects took a downward turn in June. Those expecting an increase in their income fell to 16.9 per cent from 18.9 per cent, while those anticipating a decrease rose to 11.9 per cent from 11.4 per cent in May.

Fears of an impending recession, which have been rising steadily since August 2022, seemed to ease in June. About 69.3 per cent of consumers think a recession is ‘somewhat’ or ‘very likely’, down from 73.2 per cent in May, indicating a drop in economic anxiety.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DP)

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