FIS forecasts global e-com to hit $8.5 trn by 2026 from $6 trn in 2022

The explosive growth in global e-commerce in the first two years of the pandemic slowed a bit last year, with a 10 per cent year-on-year (YoY) growth in such transaction value from 2021 to 2022.

The report predicted global e-commerce will grow in all regions, with a robust double-digit growth projected in emerging markets, and this trend presents attractive opportunities for cross-border e-commerce.

Businesses, therefore, should develop cross-border e-commerce capabilities to benefit from the high-growth markets, it suggested.

US firm Fidelity National Information Services, Inc (FIS), offers technology solutions for merchants, banks and capital markets firms globally.

All regions barring Europe witnessed double-digit growth from 2021-2022, with the Middle East and Africa seeing the highest growth of 21 per cent.

Of the 40 markets covered in the report, 37 saw double-digit YoY growth from 2021 to 2022. Markets in Latin America, the Middle East, Africa and Southeast Asia, except for Thailand at 9 per cent, continue to be high-growth markets. The report predicted a mid-teens CAGR in these regions till 2026.

Account-to-account (A2A) payments are taking off, driven by real-time payment (RTP) rails. RTP schemes increasingly enable A2A payments from persons to businesses (P2B). A2A is disrupting payment value chains with lower costs of payment acceptance versus cards. Global A2A transaction value surpassed $525 billion in 2022 and is projected to grow at 13 per cent CAGR till 2026, the report said.

Digital wallets extend their omni-channel dominance. Wallets like Alipay, PayPal and Apple Pay remain the leading payment method globally in e-com (49 per cent share) and at point of sale, or POS, (32 per cent share), accounting for close to $18 trillion in consumer spending.

Wallets remain among the fastest growing payment methods with 15 per cent CAGR at POS and 12 per cent annual growth in e-com forecast till 2026, it said.

The decline of cash continues with –minus 6 per cent CAGR projected till 2026, as consumers gravitate to the ease, convenience and safety of digital payments. Yet a ‘cashless society’ isn’t on the immediate horizon, the report noted.

Following years of unrestrained growth, buy now pay later (BNPL) is facing increasing headwinds. Regulatory scrutiny, interest rate pressure and intense competition are transforming the sector.

Yet BNPL remains popular among consumers and represented 5 per cent of 2022 global e-commerce spending. The next phase is likely to see sustained growth amid market consolidation and mainstreamed regulation, the report added.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)